Find your bearings before you move. 

Earlier this month, I shared a look in Simplifying the Market at who has the upper hand in today’s housing market.

With NAR now describing this as the most balanced market since 2020, my observation went somewhere else:

What does that balance mean?

For years, unusual market conditions rewarded speed.

A more balanced market may reward something else:

discernment.

When the market stops rewarding reaction, it starts rewarding discernment.

Why?

Because balance doesn’t happen in a vacuum, and we haven’t seen much of it in housing over the past several years.

There are also differing opinions on what “balanced” actually means.

Balance is generally measured by months of existing-home supply—or how long it would take to absorb the homes currently for sale at the current sales pace. NAR has traditionally put a balanced market at around six months of supply. Freddie Mac uses five to six months, while a Congressional Research Service review notes that economists generally place it somewhere around four to six months, with equilibrium differing by place.

That last part matters.

Even before the pandemic, we weren’t necessarily sitting in a balanced national market. Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies reported 3.8 months of existing-home supply in 2019. By September 2020, that had fallen to roughly 2.7 months, and by December 2021 it was just 1.8 months.

Fast-forward to 2025 and the picture was changing. Realtor.com reported that of the 50 largest metros, 23 were balanced, seven favored buyers and 20 remained seller-friendly.

There it is.

A national housing market can statistically be called “balanced” while individual metros—and the neighborhoods, price points and property types within them—are experiencing something quite different.

Supply and demand are the drivers underneath all of this. When one side has considerably more power, buyers or sellers tend to control the conversation. As that power recedes, we move closer to balance.

Perchance the more interesting question isn’t why one side isn’t winning.

Peering a little further into my observation, perhaps it’s what both sides do when neither one clearly is.

The Local Market Complicates the National Story

National housing data gives us context.

It does not tell us what is happening on every street.

Green Country can contain several different market conditions at the same time. The same is true in a market as different as Las Vegas, where conditions can vary dramatically by area, neighborhood, price point or property type.

In reality, almost every housing market contains smaller markets within it.

One price range may have plentiful inventory. Another may remain tight.

New construction may create competition for resale homes in one or multiple areas.

And a particularly desirable neighborhood, school district, property type, acreage home or well-positioned listing may behave quite differently.

So, “Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?” may increasingly be the wrong question.

Maybe the better one is:

“What kind of market am I entering for this particular home, in this particular place, at this particular price?”

That is where interpretation becomes more useful than a headline.

Agents must do more than announce whether inventory goes up or down. We must interpret what those conditions mean for the individual decision sitting in front of someone.

Sellers must be willing to listen more carefully to what the market is telling them, too.

Balance Changes Seller Strategy

A seller in a more balanced market may still sell very well.

But the market may no longer overlook everything.

Pricing, condition, presentation, the first days on market, competition—these things matter. And so does understanding what buyers are responding to.

A market with more choices doesn’t necessarily make buyers unreasonable. It allows them to become more selective.

That means sellers may need to stop asking:

“What could I have gotten for this house a few years ago?”

and start asking:

“What are today’s buyers comparing my home against?”

Buyers, meanwhile, have more room to evaluate rather than simply react.

Balance Changes Buyer Strategy Too

Balance isn’t the absence of opportunity.

It can create negotiating opportunities and possibly a return of strategy.

There may be fewer bidding wars or more seller concessions in some markets. But more room to negotiate doesn’t mean every home is negotiable in the same way.

A well-priced, desirable home can still attract competition.

And waiting for the entire housing market to somehow become universally favorable may mean overlooking an opportunity that is already sitting in front of you.

The opportunity isn’t always in the market as a whole. Sometimes it’s in the individual house.

Maybe the advantage of a balanced market isn’t that buyers finally get to “win.”

Maybe it’s simply having enough room to breathe and make a more thoughtful decision.

Final Thought

The housing market doesn’t have to belong entirely to buyers or entirely to sellers for someone to make a good move.

Sometimes the healthiest market may be one where neither side gets everything they want—and both sides have an opportunity to make better choices.

The numbers can tell us where the market has been and where it appears to be heading.

But eventually, every housing decision becomes much smaller and much more personal:

this house.
this price.
this neighborhood.
this season of life.
this decision.

And that’s where the real work begins.

Lori Wayne

Observations on housing, home, and how we live.

REALTOR® | Real Estate Guide

Originally published in Wayfinder – Field Notes on Substack.

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Photo by Aaron Burden on Unsplash

NAR: The Most Balanced Market Since 2020 Graphic